I just tried it, and I think their estimates are off. To be precise, I'm not as underconfident as they estimate.
The problem is that the quizzes are "multiple guess". In several cases, I hadn't a clue, and guessed randomly. My expected payoff is (1 * right-payoff + 3 * wrong-payoff) / 4. I didn't run these numbers, what with the time limit, I just kind of presumed "no clue" would produce that effect. Maybe not.
The other problem is that there were questions where I had no hope of naming the correct response, without hints - but with hints, I could use tricks of the trivia trade. For example, when asked "which actress..." the answer is almost always the only one whose name I recognize. Or when asked which alcohol is used in what's obviously a British recipe from a certain time period, pick an alcohol common in Britain, and oft mentioned in that time period. (It didn't even have the one I'd have named, given a free choice.)
Anyway, I feel like my confidence is good - I know when I'm guessing - but somehow the game doesn't represent that.
Of course what was really bizarre was acing the demo game, in spite of guessing.
no subject
The problem is that the quizzes are "multiple guess". In several cases, I hadn't a clue, and guessed randomly. My expected payoff is (1 * right-payoff + 3 * wrong-payoff) / 4. I didn't run these numbers, what with the time limit, I just kind of presumed "no clue" would produce that effect. Maybe not.
The other problem is that there were questions where I had no hope of naming the correct response, without hints - but with hints, I could use tricks of the trivia trade. For example, when asked "which actress..." the answer is almost always the only one whose name I recognize. Or when asked which alcohol is used in what's obviously a British recipe from a certain time period, pick an alcohol common in Britain, and oft mentioned in that time period. (It didn't even have the one I'd have named, given a free choice.)
Anyway, I feel like my confidence is good - I know when I'm guessing - but somehow the game doesn't represent that.
Of course what was really bizarre was acing the demo game, in spite of guessing.