No, if this were due to a "firewall curtain" around Russia, the error would not be received from LJ. The connection wouldn't reach the Russian server to fail.
It's possible that (1) LJ put the bad password protection in recently and/or (2) enough people have had their passwords changed on LJ without fixing the crosspost password at DW that the DW servers are now triggering the hour block almost all the time.
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timeasmymeasure
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It's possible that (1) LJ put the bad password protection in recently and/or (2) enough people have had their passwords changed on LJ without fixing the crosspost password at DW that the DW servers are now triggering the hour block almost all the time.