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…and other applications of non-linear dynamics. A press release from Northwestern University — "Bell-bottoms today, miniskirts tomorrow: Math reveals fashion's 20-year cycle":
Fashion insiders and beauty magazines have long cited the "20-year-rule"—the idea that clothing trends often resurface every two decades. According to Northwestern University scientists, that observation isn't just anecdotal. It's a mathematical reality.
In a new study, the Northwestern team developed a new mathematical model showing that fashion trends tend to cycle roughly every 20 years. By analyzing roughly 37,000 images of women's clothing spanning from 1869 to today, the team found that styles rise in popularity, fall out of favor and then eventually experience renewal. Along with supporting common perceptions about the life cycles of fads, the researchers say these results could help explain how new ideas spread in society.
The study's lead author, Emma Zajdela, will present these findings on Tuesday, March 17, at the American Physical Society (APS) Global Physics Summit in Denver. Her talk, "Back in Fashion: Modeling the Cyclical Dynamics of Trends," is part of the session "Statistical Physics of Networks and Complex Society Systems."
Many people have experienced firsthand the idea that "fashion comes back," from bell-bottom jeans to mini-skirts. Historically, a lack of quantitative data posed a barrier to explicit mathematical study of this system; however, newly digitized historical records now make such work possible. We constructed a new database quantifying tens of thousands of women's dresses from 1869 to present day. Our analysis indicates that fashion is cyclical and, remarkably, in line with common knowledge in the fashion industry, this cycle is approximately 20 years long. We developed a mathematical model to understand and predict the evolution of these trends inspired by a continuous-time version of bounded confidence interval models for opinion dynamics. This model includes the idea of "optimal distinctiveness," which has been shown to be present in other dynamics of human innovation and time-delay dynamics. This conceptually simple mechanistic model performs well at replicating the dynamics of the trends observed. Large-scale social phenomena such as fashion trends are of intrinsic interest themselves, but a better understanding of this fashion system will contribute to elucidating the interplay of creativity, differentiation, conformity, and diffusion of ideas in broader human systems.
In fashion (as in music, birdsong, and language), maximal appeal comes from the introduction of modest innovation into familiar patterns.
Zajdela's 2023 PhD dissertation — "Mathematical modeling of complex systems with applications to scientific collaboration at conferences and chimera states for coupled oscillators":
Complex systems exhibit the remarkable property that the behavior of the collective is greater than the sum of its parts. Mathematical modeling validated with data provides understanding of the underlying mechanisms that drive these emergent behaviors. Here, we present models of two types of complex systems using an applied dynamical systems framework: a social system and a system of coupled oscillators. The first model predicts how scientific collaborations form at in-person and virtual conferences. The second analyzes coupled oscillators with amplitude and proves the existence and stability of a new class of chimera states, the “phase chimera.”
And an application to conference dynamics — Zajdela, Emma R., Kimberly Huynh, Andrew L. Feig, Richard J. Wiener, and Daniel M. Abrams. "Face-to-face or face-to-screen: A quantitative comparison of conferences modalities." PNAS nexus 4, no. 1 (2025):
The COVID-19 pandemic forced a societal shift from in-person to virtual activities, including scientific conferences. As society navigates a “new normal,” the question arises as to the advantages and disadvantages of these alternative modalities. We introduce two new comprehensive datasets enabling direct comparison between virtual and in-person conferences: the first, from a series of nine small conferences, encompasses over 12,000 pairs of potential scientific collaborators across five virtual and four in-person meetings on a range of scientific topics; the expressed goal of these conferences is to create novel collaborations. The second dataset, from a series of three large physics conferences, encompasses >250,000 possible pairs of scientific collaborators. Our study provides quantitative insight into benefits and drawbacks of virtual and in-person conferences for team formation, community building, and engagement. We demonstrate the causal role of formal interaction on team formation across both modalities. Our findings show that formal interaction impacted team formation significantly more in virtual settings, while informal interaction played a larger role at in-person conferences as compared with virtual. We show that a nonlinear memory model for predicting team formation based on interaction outperforms seven alternative models. The model suggests that prior knowledge and interaction time contribute to catalyzing collaborations in both settings. Our results underscore the critical responsibility of organizers for optimizing professional interactions, whether virtual or in-person.
They asked nicely at first.
After an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed Renee Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who’d recently moved to Minneapolis, local law enforcement officials requested a partnership with the federal government to investigate the case, as they’d done in past shootings involving federal agents.
When the Trump administration refused to cooperate, Minnesota prosecutors ratcheted up their efforts. They sent a series of strongly worded legal letters demanding evidence in the Good shooting as well as the shootings of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis, a Venezuelan immigrant who was wounded a week after Good was shot, and Alex Pretti, who was killed on Jan. 24.
Still, the administration rebuffed the requests.
This week, prosecutors from Hennepin County and the state of Minnesota took the next step to force the Trump administration’s hand. They filed a federal lawsuit against the departments of Homeland Security and Justice over the evidence in the shootings, an action that Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, whose jurisdiction covers Minneapolis, characterized as “unprecedented in American history.”
The Trump administration has declined to release the names of the agents involved in the shootings, even after the Minnesota Star Tribune and ProPublica identified the officers involved in the Good and Pretti incidents.
“The federal government has refused to cooperate with state law enforcement, which is unique, rare and simply cannot be tolerated,” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison told reporters. “[We] can’t sit around and let them do it.”
In the standoff over evidence, the case has already become a game of constitutional chicken over states’ rights versus federal immunity, a battle that will have implications for others who wish to hold agents in the president’s immigration surge criminally accountable.
So far, neither side is showing signs of backing down, foreshadowing a fight that could take years. If prosecutors do eventually file charges against federal agents involved in the shootings, legal experts said the path to trial, much less winning convictions, will be filled with legal and procedural challenges.
“State prosecutors across the country are going to be watching what happens in Minnesota really closely,” said Alicia Bannon, director of the judiciary program at the nonprofit Brennan Center for Justice.
The first test for prosecutors, if they file charges, would be to prove the agents don’t qualify for immunity through the Constitution’s supremacy clause, a rarely invoked legal doctrine that protects federal officers from state prosecutions if they’re acting lawfully and within the scope of their duties.
Failing to pass that test would likely end the case.
The U.S. Supreme Court hasn’t taken up a case involving supremacy clause immunity in over 100 years, Bannon said, and judges have come down differently on legal issues related to its application.
There’s no easy answer as to whether Minnesota will be able to get past a supremacy clause defense, said Jill Hasday, a constitutional law professor at the University of Minnesota.
“That depends on the facts, but probably the odds are stacked against it,” she said.
Even if they survive such a fight, the cases could be dogged by a series of logistical challenges. Moriarty, who has been leading the investigations, has decided not to seek reelection and will leave office at the end of the year. That means whoever wins the election for her seat in November could inherit the prosecutions.
In addition to not having the names of the agents, prosecutors don’t know where those agents are now. Minnesota may need to extradite them, potentially from a MAGA-leaning state that may balk at sending them to Hennepin County to stand trial.
“Will the federal government or other states cooperate with that? I think the answer to that is sort of iffy,” said Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University in Virginia. (Indeed, in a case involving a doctor charged with illegally mailing abortion medication to a Louisiana woman, the state of California has rejected an extradition request, citing its own laws protecting doctors from prosecution elsewhere.)
The fight is focused on three shootings. But Moriarty’s office has opened criminal investigations into 14 additional cases of potentially unlawful behavior by federal agents during Operation Metro Surge, which started in early December and has wound down over the past few weeks.
The other cases Moriarty is examining involve allegations of excessive force or other misconduct by federal agents, such as an incident in early January in which agents allegedly used force on staff and students on the grounds of a high school.
Prosecutors are also investigating Gregory Bovino, the outgoing Border Patrol commander who helped to lead immigration surges into several American cities and who was seen on video lobbing green-smoke canisters into crowds at a park in Minneapolis. A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said at the time that Bovino and other agents were responding to a “hostile crowd.”
The tension has played out in a series of demand letters sent by Moriarty to the Justice and Homeland Security departments. “Public transparency is vitally important in these cases — not just for the people of Hennepin County and Minnesota, but for the public nationwide,” Moriarty wrote in one of the letters. “The only way to achieve transparency is through investigation conducted at a local level.”
In January, after the shooting of Good, federal officials had agreed to participate in a joint investigation with the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension — Minnesota’s state police agency tasked with examining use of deadly force cases — according to the letters signed by Moriarty.
State officials presumed they’d be able to examine evidence, such as the car Good was driving and the guns used to shoot her and the other victims. But the investigators later learned through public statements by high-ranking Trump administration officials that federal agents were no longer planning to share evidence, the letter states.
Local and state prosecutors don’t have the authority to subpoena them for evidence like in a typical criminal investigation. The demand letters, called Touhy letters, are formal written requests, used as an alternative to a subpoena, asking a federal agency to provide evidence or testimony in a case in which the government is not a party. Moriarty sought an extensive list of evidence in the shootings, from the guns fired by the agents in all three cases to official reports, agent GPS devices and witness statements. The Touhy letters asked for a response by Feb. 17.
Normally, the federal government complies with Touhy letters as a matter of protocol, as long as releasing the information doesn’t violate an internal policy, said Timothy Johnson, a political science and law professor at the University of Minnesota.
But on Feb. 13, the FBI told BCA investigators that it won’t share investigative materials in the Pretti case, BCA Superintendent Drew Evans said in a statement. Evans said the police agency had reiterated its requests for evidence in the Good and Sosa-Celis cases.
More than a month after the deadline set by prosecutors, the Trump administration still hasn’t turned over the materials.
“There has been no cooperation from federal authorities,” BCA spokesperson Michael Ernster said.
The agents involved in the shootings have not spoken publicly, but a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security defended Good’s shooting, saying the agent acted in self-defense. They said the Pretti shooting was under investigation by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, with the Border Patrol conducting its own investigation. Those investigations could result in discipline or charges, including for civil rights violations.
The Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said federal officials found that, after Sosa-Celis’ shooting, officers made false statements. But the agency did not say whether it would cooperate with the local authorities or follow a court ruling requiring it to do so.
The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment or to questions. Neither agency has responded to the lawsuit.
Moriarty called the lawsuit “critically important” to investigating the shooting cases but also said she had not made any decisions on whether her office will file charges.
“There has to be an investigation anytime a federal agent or a state agent takes the life of a person in our community,” she said. “And ultimately the decision may be it was lawful. You don’t know, but that’s why you do the investigation. You are transparent with the results of that investigation, and you are public with your transparency about the decision and how you got there.”
But a lawsuit does not guarantee that prosecutors will get all they want. “The question then becomes, even if Hennepin County or Minneapolis wins the suit, will they comply then?” Johnson asked. “And the answer is probably no.”
If the Trump administration did eventually defy a judge’s order, he said, prosecutors could try to appeal up to the U.S. Supreme Court. As far as what could happen next: “It’s anyone’s guess.”
The post Minnesota Kicks Off Legal Battle With Trump Administration to Hold ICE Shooters Accountable appeared first on ProPublica.
SlasHeaven, a Spanish-language slash fanfiction and fanart archive, is being imported to the Archive of Our Own (AO3).
In this post:
SlasHeaven was founded on May 19, 2004, by the programmer and main promoter of the archive, Ayesha, and two collaborators, Maryam and Aura. This began after a massive deletion of fanfiction slash written in Spanish at a popular platform and with the conviction that we needed a place where we could publish in our language without restrictions. And so this website was born, a place dedicated exclusively to slash fanfiction written in Spanish.
SlasHeaven’s archivist made the decision to move the archive to AO3 after web configuration issues made it untenable to continue maintaining the archive themselves.
The purpose of the Open Doors Committee’s Online Archive Rescue Project is to assist moderators of archives to incorporate the fanworks from those archives into the Archive of Our Own. Open Doors works with moderators to import their archives when the moderators lack the funds, time, or other resources to continue to maintain their archives independently. It is extremely important to Open Doors that we work in collaboration with moderators who want to import their archives and that we fully credit creators, giving them as much control as possible over their fanworks. Open Doors will be working with Maryam and Aura to import SlasHeaven into a separate, searchable collection on the Archive of Our Own. As part of preserving the archive in its entirety, any fanart currently hosted by SlasHeaven will be hosted on the OTW's servers, and embedded in their own AO3 work pages.
We will begin importing works from SlasHeaven to AO3 after March. However, the import may not take place for several months or even years, depending on the size and complexity of the archive. Creators are always welcome to import their own works and add them to the collection in the meantime.
We will send an import notification to the email address we have for each creator. We'll do our best to check for an existing copy of any works before importing. If we find a copy already on AO3, we will add it to the collection instead of importing it. All works archived on behalf of a creator will include their name in the byline or the summary of the work.
All imported works will be set to be viewable only by logged-in AO3 users. Once you claim your works, you can make them publicly-viewable if you choose. After 30 days, all unclaimed imported works will be made visible to all visitors.
Please contact Open Doors with your SlasHeaven pseud(s) and email address(es), if:
Please include the name of the archive in the subject heading of your email. If you no longer have access to the email account associated with your SlasHeaven account, please contact Open Doors and we'll help you out. (If you've posted the works elsewhere, or have an easy way to verify that they're yours, that's great; if not, we will work with the SlasHeaven mods to confirm your claims.)
Please see the Open Doors Website for instructions on:
If you have further questions, visit the Open Doors FAQ, or contact the Open Doors committee.
We'd also love it if fans could help us preserve the story of SlasHeaven on Fanlore. If you're new to wiki editing, no worries! Check out the new visitor portal, or ask the Fanlore Gardeners for tips.
We're excited to be able to help preserve SlasHeaven!
- The Open Doors team and Maryam and Aura
Commenting on this post will be disabled in 14 days, on April 8, 2026. If you have any questions, concerns, or comments regarding this import after that date, please contact Open Doors.
axisandallies ]
zdenkaThe mayor of Hammond, Indiana, says train company Norfolk Southern is reneging on a promise to partly finance the construction of a pedestrian overpass at a dangerous rail crossing that was the subject of a ProPublica investigation. And without the funding, he added, the project is dead.
Officials began pursuing the overpass in 2023, after the news organization and its reporting partner, InvestigateTV, documented dozens of children crawling through, over and under trains that blocked them from getting to and from school in the city.
Hammond is a nearby suburb of Chicago, the busiest train hub in the nation. At the time, the area served as a kind of parking lot for Norfolk Southern’s trains as they idled between two busy intersections — a growing problem in Hammond and railroad communities like it across the country as trains get longer.
After publication, Norfolk Southern’s CEO at the time, Alan Shaw, called Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott to discuss solutions, including a pedestrian overpass. The mayor said Shaw committed to paying the full cost of the project. A spokesperson for Norfolk Southern told ProPublica the company never made any such commitment.
The company would later make operational changes, such as stopping the trains in a different location to reduce the impact to Hammond and the schoolchildren. Still, one child was captured on video jumping from a moving train after Norfolk Southern said it made those changes.
For a while, the overpass effort seemed to have some momentum. The company paid for engineering and design plans, and in June 2023 the city received a $7.7 million federal grant for the project. While it required a local match of $2.6 million, McDermott said Shaw agreed to pay it.
The mayor said the company made no written commitment, and Shaw was fired by the railroad in 2024. Now, McDermott is accusing Norfolk Southern, under its current CEO, Mark George, of backing out of the handshake deal. “The new guy got amnesia,” the mayor told ProPublica.
Shaw did not respond to messages seeking comment.
A spokesperson for Norfolk Southern, which reported $2.9 billion in profit in 2025 according to its Securities and Exchange Commission filings, disputed McDermott’s claims that the company agreed to provide the matching funds but said it did provide the city with $450,000 and “assisted officials in successfully applying for a federal grant to make the city’s plan for a pedestrian bridge possible.”
The spokesperson also said that the changes the company made in 2023 to reduce the impact on schools are working.
“More than two years later, these changes continue to yield results, including a nearly 50% drop in blocked crossing calls into our communications center at this location,” the spokesperson wrote in an email.
But local and state officials say Hammond is still seeing blocked crossings near schools. Carlotta Blake-King, the local school board president, told ProPublica that district employees saw children at a different location traversing a stopped train as they left school as recently as last week.
A Norfolk Southern spokesperson acknowledged the blockage but said it was “not typical for that location.” The company said its trains normally have clear passage through that area without stopping. “We never want to inconvenience our communities with a stopped train, and we encourage everyone to always stay off railroad tracks and never attempt to cross between rail cars,” the spokesperson wrote.
McDermott said he’s also noticed Norfolk Southern’s trains beginning to block the roadways again and worries that “it will slowly but surely resume to where it was.”
“I’ve already been lied to once by Norfolk Southern,” the mayor said, “so I have no reason to believe that they’re going to keep on trying to reduce the impacts upon our city.”
McDermott said the community will ultimately see some relief in the form of a vehicle overpass in the area where the children routinely encounter the train. The project, however, won’t be completed until at least 2029. And while it will include a path for pedestrians, it won’t help many students, as they would need to walk at least a mile out of their way to reach it.
Indiana state Rep. Carolyn Jackson, a Democrat who represents the Hammond area and has in the past introduced legislation to address blocked crossings, said she doesn’t want the community’s children to grow “up thinking that crawling under or over the train is a way of life.” Her fear is that without the bridge, “a child will be severely injured or killed in Hammond.”
McDermott said he has the same fear: “I hope to God, and I pray it never happens.”
The post Walkway Over Dangerous Train Crossing Is Dead After Norfolk Southern Backtracks on Funds, Mayor Says appeared first on ProPublica.
